典型二氧化碳利用技术的低碳成效综合评估

doi:10.16085/j.issn.1000-6613.2021-2551

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

面向全新的碳中和愿景，二氧化碳利用作为一种重要的低碳技术，受到了学术界和工业界的广泛关注，开展技术的低碳成效评估对于技术研发及布局的顶层设计具有重要意义。然而已有研究主要基于技术特征开展定性的优先序判断，缺乏系统性的评估方法。本文首先对国内外二氧化碳利用技术发展现状开展梳理，围绕技术特性、碳中和效应、经济效应和社会效应四个方面，采用层次分析和目标趋近相结合的方法，构建了针对二氧化碳利用技术低碳成效综合评估的方法学；并对我国典型的二氧化碳利用技术低碳成效现状以及未来潜力开展应用评估，通过不同二氧化碳利用技术低碳成效的横向对比以及技术不同阶段低碳成效的纵向对比，研究发现：目前我国二氧化碳利用技术低碳成效整体水平偏低，不同二氧化碳利用技术低碳成效的差异主要来自技术特性和碳中和效应两大方面；我国现有的典型二氧化碳利用技术中，二氧化碳加氢合成甲醇技术和二氧化碳与甲烷重整制备合成气技术的低碳成效相对显著；通过对未来不同阶段二氧化碳利用技术低碳成效的对比分析，发现不同二氧化碳利用技术的低碳成效变化有较大差异，其中二氧化碳矿化养护混凝土和二氧化碳光电催化转化技术的低碳成效有明显提升。

关键词: 温室气体, 二氧化碳, 二氧化碳利用, 低碳成效, 层次分析法, 综合评估

Abstract:

In the context of carbon neutrality, the carbon dioxide utilization, as an important low carbon technology, has received extensive attention from academia and industry, the low carbon performance evaluation becomes very important for the top-level design of technology research and layout. However, the existing researches mainly focus on qualitative priority judgment of technical characteristics, and lack of systematic evaluation method. This paper firstly combed the development status of carbon dioxide utilization technology, and then based on the four aspects of technical characteristics, carbon neutralization effect, economic effect and social effect, a comprehensive low carbon performance evaluation methodology had been constructed by combining the method of analytic hierarchy process and proximity to target, and it had been applied to current status and future potential low carbon performance evaluation of the typical carbon dioxide utilization technology in China. Through the horizontal low carbon performance comparison of different carbon dioxide utilization technologies and the vertical low carbon performance comparison of different technologies at different stages, the results showed that at the present stage, the overall low carbon performance of carbon dioxide utilization technology in China was relatively low, and the key differences of low carbon performance mainly came from two aspects: technical characteristics and carbon neutralization effect. Among the existing typical carbon dioxide utilization technologies in China, the technology of hydrogenation of carbon dioxide to methanol and reforming of carbon dioxide and methane to syngas had relatively remarkable low carbon performance. In addition, through the comparative analysis of the low carbon performance in the future, the low carbon performance of different carbon dioxide utilization technologies varied greatly, among which the low carbon performance of carbon dioxide mineralization curing concrete technology and carbon dioxide photoelectric catalytic conversion technology was significantly improved.

Key words: greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide, carbon dioxide utilization, low carbon performance, analytic hierarchy process, comprehensive evaluation

中图分类号:

尚丽, 刘双, 沈群, 张凌云, 孙楠楠, 魏伟. 典型二氧化碳利用技术的低碳成效综合评估[J]. 化工进展, 2022, 41(3): 1199-1208.

SHANG Li, LIU Shuang, SHEN Qun, ZHANG Lingyun, SUN Nannan, WEI Wei. Comprehensive evaluation of low carbon performance of typical carbon dioxide utilization technologies[J]. Chemical Industry and Engineering Progress, 2022, 41(3): 1199-1208.

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矩阵	P₁	P₂	……	……	P_n
P₁	b₁₁	b₁₂	……	……	b₁_n
P₂	b₂₁	b₂₂	……	……	b₂_n
……	……	……	……	……	……
P_n	b_n₁	b_n₂	……	……	b_nn

标度	含义
1	表示两个因素相比，具有同样重要性
3	表示两个因素相比，一个因素比另一个因素稍微重要
5	表示两个因素相比，一个因素比另一个因素明显重要
7	表示两个因素相比，一个因素比另一个因素强烈重要
9	表示两个因素相比，一个因素比另一个因素极端重要
2，4，6，8	上述两相邻判断的中值

目标层	准则层	权重	指标层	权重
低碳成效综合评估	技术特性A	0.250	技术成熟度	0.150
			产品的市场容量	0.050
			技术推广难度	0.050
	碳中和效应B	0.500	技术能耗强度	0.044
			二氧化碳消耗强度	0.015
			原料替代减排强度	0.221
			综合减排量	0.221
	经济效应C	0.125	成本	0.063
	经济效应C	0.125	收益	0.063
	社会效应D	0.125	传统安全&环境	0.063
			产业链安全	0.031
			供应链安全	0.031

指标		处理方法
定量指标
技术能耗强度，二氧化碳消耗强度，原料替代减排强度，综合减排潜力		以国内外技术低碳发展可能达到的先进值/国家政策推荐目标值作为评价标准
		正指标评价公式为：负指标评价公式为：
		式中，I_i 为某单项指标评价指数；V_i 为某单项指标参数；S_i 为某单项指标评价标准值。
定性指标
技术成熟度，产品的市场容量，技术推广难度，成本，收益，传统安全&环境产业链安全，供应链安全		采用4级划分法，即将定性指标分为4个区间标准值设定为1，不满足取值0，其他水平取区间值（0.25，0.5，0.75）正向指标值越大，分值越高负向指标值越大，分值越低

定性指标	Tech01-合成气	Tech02-甲醇	Tech03-光电催化	Tech04-有机碳酸酯	Tech05-钢渣矿化	Tech06-养护混凝土	Tech07-微藻
A1	0.75	0.75	0.25	0.75	0.5	0.5	0.75
A2	1	0.75	0.75	0.25	0.25	0.75	0.25
A3	0.75	0.5	0.25	0.75	0.25	0.5	0.5
B1	0.25	0.5	1	0.75	0.5	0.75	0.5
B2	0.73	1.37	1.57	0.5	0.5	0.034	1.83
B3	1.8	4	1.8	0.5	0.5	0.031	0
B4	5	2.862	0	1	0	0.1	3.6
C1	0.75	0.5	0.25	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.5
C2	0.25	0.5	0.5	0.75	0.25	0.25	0.5
D1	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.75	0.75	0.75	0.5
D2	0.75	0.75	0.5	0.5	0.25	0.25	0.25
D3	0.75	0.75	0.5	0.5	0.25	0.25	0.25