化工园区多灾种耦合脆弱性方法探究与前沿综述

doi:10.16085/j.issn.1000-6613.2018-1532

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

随着自然灾害诱发工业事故的增加，多灾种耦合影响下的化工园区脆弱性研究受到广泛关注。本文对国内外脆弱性的相关概念进行归纳总结，分析风险与脆弱性之间的关系；通过分析化工园区多灾种耦合内涵，构建多灾种耦合脆弱性框架，研究化工园区在单一灾害、两次灾害及多灾种耦合作用下的脆弱性演化过程；依据多灾种耦合脆弱性评估的思路，划分多灾种耦合脆弱性现有评估方法，分析各评估方法的优缺点；结合化工园区多灾种耦合脆弱性特点，提出面向多重扰动时化工园区脆弱性评估中亟待开展的研究内容，为深入开展多灾种耦合脆弱性评估提供依据。

关键词: 脆弱性, 多灾种耦合, 化工园区, 风险, 前沿

Abstract:

With the increase of industrial accidents induced by natural disasters, the research on the vulnerability of Chemical Industry Park under the influence of coupled multi-hazard has received extensive attention. By summarizing the related concepts of vulnerability, the relationship between risk and vulnerability was analyzed. By analyzing the connotation of coupled multi-hazard in Chemical Industry Park, a coupled multi-hazard vulnerability framework was build, and the vulnerability evolution process under the single disaster, double disasters and coupled multi-hazard was studied. Based on the thoughts of coupled multi-hazard vulnerability assessment approach, the existing assessment methods for coupled multi-hazard vulnerability were divided, and the advantages and disadvantages of each assessment method were analyzed. Combined with the characteristics of coupled multi-hazard vulnerability in the Chemical Industry Park, the research that needed to be carried out in the vulnerability assessment of Chemical Industry Park when facing multi-perturbation was put forward, and the basis for the in-depth development of coupled multi-hazard vulnerability assessment was provided.

Key words: vulnerability, coupled multi-hazard, Chemical Industry Park, risk, frontier

中图分类号:

X 937

陈国华, 邹梦婷, 黄孔星, 杨运锋. 化工园区多灾种耦合脆弱性方法探究与前沿综述[J]. 化工进展, 2019, 38(05): 2527-2535.

Guohua CHEN, Mengting ZOU, Kongxing HUANG, Yunfeng YANG. Methods analysis and frontiers review of vulnerability for coupled multi-hazard in Chemical Industry Park[J]. Chemical Industry and Engineering Progress, 2019, 38(05): 2527-2535.

图/表 10

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年份	作者	脆弱性概念
1981	Timmerman^[7]	脆弱性是系统在灾后可能产生不利影响的程度
1992	Dow^[8]	脆弱性是社会个体或社会群体应对灾害事件的能力，这种能力源于他们在自然环境和社会环境中所处的形势
1998	George等^[9]	脆弱性是暴露性、适应能力（涵盖抵御能力及恢复能力）两大变量的函数
2003	Turner等^[10]	脆弱性是系统、子系统或系统组分由于暴露于危险源、扰动或压力，可能引起的损失程度
2006	Adger^[11]	脆弱性由暴露于扰动或外部压力、对扰动的敏感性和适应能力等部分构成
2007	Folke等^[12]	脆弱性是系统遭受不利影响，可能引起的潜在损失的程度
2011	Hinkel^[13]	脆弱性是系统容易受到影响以及不能应对不利气候变化（包括气候转变和极端情况）影响的程度
2016	Beroya-Eitner^[14]	脆弱性是指应对外部扰动（包括特定空间范围内的自然或人为因素）时，系统的弱阻力和低韧性
2018	Lina等^[15]	脆弱性是系统在受到不同类型（连续/瞬时；内部/外部）的不利影响时，系统功能损失的程度，与系统韧性（系统抵抗干扰的能力）成反比

年份	作者	脆弱性概念
1981	Timmerman^[7]	脆弱性是系统在灾后可能产生不利影响的程度
1992	Dow^[8]	脆弱性是社会个体或社会群体应对灾害事件的能力，这种能力源于他们在自然环境和社会环境中所处的形势
1998	George等^[9]	脆弱性是暴露性、适应能力（涵盖抵御能力及恢复能力）两大变量的函数
2003	Turner等^[10]	脆弱性是系统、子系统或系统组分由于暴露于危险源、扰动或压力，可能引起的损失程度
2006	Adger^[11]	脆弱性由暴露于扰动或外部压力、对扰动的敏感性和适应能力等部分构成
2007	Folke等^[12]	脆弱性是系统遭受不利影响，可能引起的潜在损失的程度
2011	Hinkel^[13]	脆弱性是系统容易受到影响以及不能应对不利气候变化（包括气候转变和极端情况）影响的程度
2016	Beroya-Eitner^[14]	脆弱性是指应对外部扰动（包括特定空间范围内的自然或人为因素）时，系统的弱阻力和低韧性
2018	Lina等^[15]	脆弱性是系统在受到不同类型（连续/瞬时；内部/外部）的不利影响时，系统功能损失的程度，与系统韧性（系统抵抗干扰的能力）成反比

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