化工进展 ›› 2024, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (5): 2823-2833.DOI: 10.16085/j.issn.1000-6613.2023-1698

• 二氧化碳捕集与资源化利用 • 上一篇    

新疆油田某超临界CO2管道安全停输时间预测

李欣泽1,2(), 邹炜杰1, 孙晨1, 付璇1,2, 陈潜3, 袁亮4, 王梓丞5, 邢晓凯1,2(), 熊小琴1,2, 郭良辉1,2   

  1. 1.中国石油大学(北京)克拉玛依校区工学院,新疆 克拉玛依 834000
    2.新疆多介质管道安全输送重点实验室,新疆 乌鲁木齐 830000
    3.长江大学石油工程学院,湖北 武汉 430100
    4.中国石油新疆油田分公司开发公司,新疆 克拉玛依 834000
    5.中国石油新疆油田分公司工程技术研究院,新疆 克拉玛依 834000
  • 收稿日期:2023-09-26 修回日期:2023-10-29 出版日期:2024-05-15 发布日期:2024-06-15
  • 通讯作者: 邢晓凯
  • 作者简介:李欣泽(1987—),男,博士,高级工程师,研究方向为超临界CO2长距离输送管道运行安全保障关键技术。E-mail:lixinze@cupk.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    中国石油大学(北京)克拉玛依校区科研启动基金(XQZX20230021);新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金(2023D01A19);新疆维吾尔自治区克拉玛依市创新环境建设计划(创新人才)(20232023hjcxrc0001);新疆维吾尔自治区“天池英才”引进计划;新疆天山创新团队“油气高效管输技术研究与应用创新团队”项目(2022TSYCTD0002);新疆维吾尔自治区“一事一议”引进战略人才项目(XQZX20240054)

Prediction of safe shutdown time of a supercritical CO2 pipeline in Xinjiang oilfield

LI Xinze1,2(), ZOU Weijie1, SUN Chen1, FU Xuan1,2, CHEN Qian3, YUAN Liang4, WANG Zicheng5, XING Xiaokai1,2(), XIONG Xiaoqin1,2, GUO Lianghui1,2   

  1. 1.School of Engineering, China University of Petroleum(Beijing) at Karamay, Karamay 834000, Xinjiang, China
    2.Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Multi-Medium Pipeline Safety Transportation, Urumqi 830000, Xinjiang, China
    3.School of Petroleum Engineering, Yangtze University, Wuhan 430100, Hubei, China
    4.Development Company of PetroChina Xinjiang Oilfield Company, Karamay 834000, Xinjiang, China
    5.Research Institute of Engineering Technology, PetroChina Xinjiang Oilfield Company, Karamay 834000, Xinjiang, China
  • Received:2023-09-26 Revised:2023-10-29 Online:2024-05-15 Published:2024-06-15
  • Contact: XING Xiaokai

摘要:

为得到超临界CO2管道安全停输时间,本文采用商业软件OLGA建立了多因素协同作用下管道安全停输时间计算模型。基于中国石油新疆油田分公司规划的超临界CO2管道工程参数范围,开展了对输量、管径、管长、首站出站温度、土壤环境温度、总传热系数、末站进站压力等管道安全停输时间影响因素研究,并基于灰色关联度分析方法,得出了土壤环境温度、管长等为敏感因素。为预测管道的安全停输时间,基于以上参数化分析得到的1728组安全停输时间计算结果,建立了管道安全停输时间数据库,结合量纲分析方法,利用Python拟合得到了用于映射七大可变参数(自变量)与超临界CO2管道安全停输时间(因变量)的高度非线性回归计算公式。结果表明:该拟合公式预测结果的最大相对误差小于10%,预测准确性良好,且该方法具有较高的计算效率。

关键词: 超临界CO2, 安全停输时间, 灰色关联, 公式化, 预测

Abstract:

In order to obtain the safe shutdown time of supercritical CO2 pipeline, the commercial software OLGA was used to establish a calculation model of pipeline safety shutdown time under multi-factor synergy. Based on the parameter range of supercritical CO2 pipeline engineering planned by PetroChina Xinjiang Oilfield Company, the influencing factors of pipeline safety shutdown time, such as pipeline capacity, pipe diameter, pipe length, initial station outlet temperature, soil environment temperature, total heat transfer coefficient, and terminal station inlet pressure, were studied, and sensitive factors such as soil environmental temperature and pipe length were obtained based on the gray correlation analysis method. In order to predict safe shutdown time of pipelines, based on above parametric analysis of 1728 sets of safe shutdown time results, a database of pipeline safety shutdown time was established. Combined with the methods of dimensional analysis, Python fitting was used to obtain a high nonlinear regression calculation formula for mapping seven variable parameters (independent variables) and supercritical CO2 pipeline safety shutdown time (dependent variable). The results showed that the maximum relative error of prediction results of fitting formula was less than 10%, showing good prediction accuracy, and the method has high computational efficiency.

Key words: supercritical carbon dioxide, safe shutdown time, gray association, formulation, prediction

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