关键词: 粉尘爆炸, 事件树, 升级概率, 多米诺效应, 贝叶斯网络

Abstract: Because of the complexity of the dust explosion mechanism and the diversity of the causes of dust explosion,dust explosion is becoming a hot spot of research,the outcomes are mainly shown in different kinds of dust explosion,dust explosion mechanism,applications of preventive and mitigating safety measures and dust explosion quantitative risk analysis,etc.,Nevertheless,the attempts made to model and assess the risk of domino effect analysis of dust explosions have been very few.This paper present the calculation model of dust explosion based on the dust explosion mechanism.After calculating the accidents conditional probability of initial dust explosion,taking advantage of the flexible structure and robust reasoning engine of BN,the likely propagation route of potential domino effects along with the probabilities thereof can be calculated.Through the application of the model calculation results,which can be concluded that dust explosion probability of domino effect and the changes of dust explosion accidents most likely route of transmission.The model provides a direction for the prevention of dust explosion accident and risk assessment.

Key words: dust explosions, event tree, escalation probability, domino effect, Bayesian network