关键词: 石化设备, 安全, 数值分析, 蒙特卡罗模拟, 参数估计

Abstract:

For the censored life data of critical petrochemical safety equipment, the traditional reliability assessment methods do not consider the effect of maintenance on time between failures. In order to avoid this shortcoming and the large error of median padding algorithm, an inverse transform interval censored data filling algorithm was proposed. Firstly, based on the assumption that the repairable system was in the minimal maintenance, the non-homogeneous Poisson process to describe the system’s failure trend was used, and the missing data of the monitoring interval using the inverse transformation filling intensity function were obtained. Then, according to the Monte Carlo expectation maximization algorithm, the parameter estimates of the filled data were obtained. The case analysis of the emergency pressure relief valve of the wax oil hydrogenation device showed that the algorithm can well integrate the existing data. Comparing with the median padding algorithm, this calculated deviation of the shape parameter estimates was reduced more than 4%, which proved the effectiveness of this algorithm. It helped the quantitative integrity management of the critical safety equipment and guaranteed the smooth operation of the petrochemical equipment.

Key words: petrochemical equipment, safety, numerical analysis, Monte Carlo simulation, parameter estimation