化工园区Na-Tech风险定量评价方法

doi:10.16085/j.issn.1000-6613.2019-1019

化工进展 ›› 2019, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (s1): 282-287.DOI: 10.16085/j.issn.1000-6613.2019-1019

化工园区Na-Tech风险定量评价方法

程玉龙^1,2, 罗云¹, 师立晨², 许铭¹

1 中国地质大学(北京)工程技术学院, 北京 100083;
2 中国安全生产科学研究院, 北京 100012

收稿日期:2019-06-27 修回日期:2019-07-08 出版日期:2019-11-16 发布日期:2019-11-16
通讯作者: 程玉龙(1988-),女,博士研究生,研究方向为化工园区风险评估。
作者简介:程玉龙(1988-),女,博士研究生,研究方向为化工园区风险评估。E-mail:elaine.528@163.com。
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划（2016YFC0801501；2018YFC0809300）。

Quantitative assessment of Na-Tech risk in chemical industry park

CHENG Yulong^1,2, LUO Yun¹, SHI Lichen², XU Ming¹

1 School of Engineering&Technology, China University of Geosciences(Beijing), Beijing 100083, China;
2 China Academy of Safety Science and Technology, Beijing 100012, China

Received:2019-06-27 Revised:2019-07-08 Online:2019-11-16 Published:2019-11-16

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 自然灾害引发的技术灾害（Na-Tech）对工业设施及生产设备带来了风险，加上化工园区聚集着大量危险化学品，这种耦合风险的扩大效应极易造成园区及周围区域的巨大经济损失和人员伤亡，因此化工园区Na-Tech事故逐渐受到广泛关注。本文通过对化工园区多灾种耦合风险影响因素进行辨识，分析耦合风险系统结构及作用机理，建立耦合风险系统结构模型与耦合风险演化模型，提出地震灾害引发的Na-Tech事故中设备泄漏概率模型；以某化工园区为例，应用耦合风险模型及设备泄漏概率模型，利用QRA软件对多灾种耦合下化工园区风险进行定量评价，对比传统工业灾害和地震灾害下个人风险和社会风险，得出地震灾害对化工园区风险影响，为化工园区多灾种耦合风险研究提供理论与方法支撑。

关键词: 化工园区, 多灾种耦合, Na-Tech, 定量风险评价

Abstract: Natural hazard triggering technological disasters (Na-Tech) events pose risks to industrial facilities and process plants. As these plants handle hazardous materials, they can endanger nearby residential areas and have financial consequences. Therefore, the Na-Tech accident in the chemical industry park has gradually received widespread attention. In this paper, through identifying the factors affecting the coupling risk of multi-hazard species in the chemical industry park, analyzed the structure and mechanism of the coupling risk system, and established the coupling risk system structure model and the coupling risk evolution model. The equipment leakage probability model in the Na-Tech accident triggered by the earthquake disaster was put forward; With the application example of a chemical industry park by using the coupling risk model and the equipment leakage probability model, QRA software was used to quantitatively evaluate the risks of the chemical industry park under the coupling of multiple disasters, and the personal and social risks under the traditional industrial disasters and earthquake disasters were compared. The impact of earthquake disaster on the risk of chemical industry park is obtained, which provides theoretical and methodological support for the study of multi-hazard coupling risk in chemical industry park.

Key words: chemical industry park, multi-hazard coupling, natural and technological disasters, quantitative risk assessment

中图分类号:

X937

程玉龙, 罗云, 师立晨, 许铭. 化工园区Na-Tech风险定量评价方法[J]. 化工进展, 2019, 38(s1): 282-287.

CHENG Yulong, LUO Yun, SHI Lichen, XU Ming. Quantitative assessment of Na-Tech risk in chemical industry park[J]. Chemical Industry and Engineering Progress, 2019, 38(s1): 282-287.

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化工园区Na-Tech风险定量评价方法

Quantitative assessment of Na-Tech risk in chemical industry park

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