关键词: 石油, 燃料, 石油消费, 消费结构, 消费峰值, 预测

Abstract: Oil consumption is a key factor of China's energy security. The analysis of future development tendency of China's oil consumption is conducive to planning oil production,oil import and refining structure adjustment,and is of great significance to ensure the national economy run normally. In this paper,the oil consumption structure over past 15 years was analyzed. With the “peak oil” theory,a prediction model for oil consumption at low,baseline and high scenarios was established by factor analysis method and Logistic model,which utilized historical data and the influence factors (such as economic development level and industry development status,etc) of oil consumption. Check and error analysis of this prediction model indicated that it had high accuracy. Considering the energy efficiency and alternative fuels,we predicted and analyzed the future development tendency of China's oil consumption. The predicted results showed that there would be a lasting growth in China's oil consumption for the next 10—20 years,and the peak value will come around 2038,of about 660—780 million tons. China should prepare for refining capacity planning and reasonable structure layout in advance.

Key words: oil, fuel, oil consumption, consumption structure, peak value, prediction