化工进展 ›› 2021, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (10): 5854-5860.DOI: 10.16085/j.issn.1000-6613.2021-0421

• 观点 • 上一篇    

中国炼油转型化工现状及发展约束因素的思考

王德亮1,2(), 周志茂1(), 林梦蕾2, 李超2   

  1. 1.中国科学院过程工程研究所过程工程研发中心,北京 100190
    2.中国石化集团经济技术研究院有限公司,北京 100029
  • 收稿日期:2021-03-02 修回日期:2021-03-19 出版日期:2021-10-10 发布日期:2021-10-25
  • 通讯作者: 周志茂
  • 作者简介:王德亮(1988—),男,博士,工程师,主要从事能源化工产业发展研究与企业规划编制工作。E-mail:wangdl2007@126.com
  • 基金资助:
    山东省重大科技创新工程项目(2019JZZY010505)

Status and thinking of development constraints of refining to chemical transformation in China

WANG Deliang1,2(), ZHOU Zhimao1(), LIN Menglei2, LI Chao2   

  1. 1.Development Center of Process Engineering, Institute of Process Engineering, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
    2.Sinopec Economics & Development Research Institute Corporation, Beijing 100029, China
  • Received:2021-03-02 Revised:2021-03-19 Online:2021-10-10 Published:2021-10-25
  • Contact: ZHOU Zhimao

摘要:

中国炼油行业总体产能过剩,受国家宏观调控、资源限制、经济发展需要等因素影响,炼油向化工转型已是大势所趋。本文从化工产能的供需两侧,对炼化相关限定因素,包括开工率、化工轻油收率、近远期石化产品需求、新建化工产能进行了详细梳理核算。文章指出,中国炼油向化工转型近期受装置竞争力限制,远期受需求最大量约束。在现有开工率、新建计划等约束下,2025年炼厂平均化工轻油收率将提升至20.6%。随着,炼油化工产能的集中投建,化工原料供应能力快速提升,化工产能的容量天花板或在国家“十四五计划”期间提前到来。综合中国、美国、日本和韩国人均化工产品历史消费数据情况,文章预计我国化工轻油的最大年需求量为3.29亿吨,远期中国炼厂整体平均化工轻油收率在41%左右。

关键词: 炼油, 炼油转型化工, 化工轻油, 化工产能, 产能天花板

Abstract:

China’s refining industry is suffering from overall overcapacity. Under the influences of national macro-control and resource constraints as well as economic development needs, the transition from refining to chemical transformation is now the general trend. This paper analyzed the relevant limiting factors in supply and demand sides of chemical production capacity, namely operating rate, chemical light oil yield, short-term and long-term demand for petrochemical products, and expansions in chemical production capacity, to provide suggestions for this transformation period. The result showed that in the near future the transformation was limited by the competitiveness of units, whereas in the long-term the maximum chemical demand became the critical constraint. Under existing operation rate and construction plans, the average chemical light oil yield from refineries would increase to 20.6% in 2025. With the construction of the new plants, the production capacity of chemical raw materials was expected to increase sharply, causing the allowed maximum capacity of chemical production to come sooner than 2025. Drawing from facts and historical mean consumption data from China, America, Japan and South Korea, it was suggested that the peak consumption of chemical light oil would reach 329 million tons. Meanwhile, the overall average yield of chemical light oil of Chinese petrochemical plants would reached 41% in the long term.

Key words: refining, refining to chemical transformation, chemical light oil, chemical production capacity, allowed maximum capacity

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