关键词: 炼油, 炼油转型化工, 化工轻油, 化工产能, 产能天花板

Abstract:

China’s refining industry is suffering from overall overcapacity. Under the influences of national macro-control and resource constraints as well as economic development needs, the transition from refining to chemical transformation is now the general trend. This paper analyzed the relevant limiting factors in supply and demand sides of chemical production capacity, namely operating rate, chemical light oil yield, short-term and long-term demand for petrochemical products, and expansions in chemical production capacity, to provide suggestions for this transformation period. The result showed that in the near future the transformation was limited by the competitiveness of units, whereas in the long-term the maximum chemical demand became the critical constraint. Under existing operation rate and construction plans, the average chemical light oil yield from refineries would increase to 20.6% in 2025. With the construction of the new plants, the production capacity of chemical raw materials was expected to increase sharply, causing the allowed maximum capacity of chemical production to come sooner than 2025. Drawing from facts and historical mean consumption data from China, America, Japan and South Korea, it was suggested that the peak consumption of chemical light oil would reach 329 million tons. Meanwhile, the overall average yield of chemical light oil of Chinese petrochemical plants would reached 41% in the long term.

Key words: refining, refining to chemical transformation, chemical light oil, chemical production capacity, allowed maximum capacity