火灾环境液化石油气卧罐动态可靠性分析

doi:10.16085/j.issn.1000-6613.2016-1823

化工进展 ›› 2017, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (09): 3231-3236.DOI: 10.16085/j.issn.1000-6613.2016-1823

火灾环境液化石油气卧罐动态可靠性分析

贾梅生, 陈国华

华南理工大学安全科学与工程研究所, 广东广州 510640

收稿日期:2016-10-09 修回日期:2017-01-10 出版日期:2017-09-05 发布日期:2017-09-05
通讯作者: 陈国华,教授,博士生导师,从事工业安全风险评价技术研究。
作者简介:贾梅生(1988-),男,博士研究生
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金（21576102）及国家重点研究开发计划（2016YFC0801500）项目。

Dynamic reliability of horizontal LPG tank exposed to fire

JIA Meisheng, CHEN Guohua

Institute of Safety Science and Engineering, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510640, Guangdong, China

Received:2016-10-09 Revised:2017-01-10 Online:2017-09-05 Published:2017-09-05

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 沸腾液体扩展蒸汽云爆炸（BLEVE）是液化烃介质压力容器处于火灾环境而极易发生的一类多米诺效应灾难事故。在火灾环境液化石油气（LPG）卧罐两节点集中温度参数模型基础上，基于随机扩散过程和首次穿越失效理论，对其动态可靠性进行建模与分析。集中温度参数模型通过转化为一个二维伊藤随机微分方程，得到漂移与扩散系数表达式；根据首次穿越失效理论，定义条件动态可靠性函数，导出函数满足的后向柯尔莫哥洛夫方程（KBE）；应用有限差分法并结合适当边界条件求解KBE，得到动态可靠性结果。与静态可靠性不同，动态可靠性方法可描述整个时间轴的破坏失效可能性，为多米诺效应定量风险评价提供更可靠、更精确的概率结果。

关键词: 沸腾液体扩展蒸汽云爆炸, 多米诺效应, 火灾, 液化石油气, 动态可靠性, 首次穿越失效, 后向柯尔莫哥洛夫方程

Abstract: The liquefied hydrocarbon pressure vessel exposed to heat radiation from fire is extremely dangerous,which may incur the boiling liquid expanding vapor explosion(BLEVE)of disaster domino effect. In this paper,based on the established two-node lumped temperature model(LTM),the dynamic reliability of the horizontal LPG tank exposed to fire was researched by applying stochastic diffusion process(SDP)and first passage failure(FPF)theories to LTM. Firstly,the LTM was converted to a two-dimensional Ito stochastic differential equation(SDE)to obtain the expressions of drift and diffusion coefficient. Then,according to FPF,a conditional dynamic reliability function was defined and the Kolmogorov backward equation(KBE)that the defined function satisfied was derived. Finally,the dynamic reliability was obtained by solving the KBE using the finite difference method(FDM)with some reasonable boundary conditions. Being different from the static reliability method,the dynamic one could describe the damage probability in whole timeline so as to provide a more reliable and accurate probability result for quantitative risk assessment(QRA)of domino effect.

Key words: BLEVE, domino effect, fire, LPG, dynamic reliability, first passage failure, KBE

中图分类号:

TQ086
X937

贾梅生, 陈国华. 火灾环境液化石油气卧罐动态可靠性分析[J]. 化工进展, 2017, 36(09): 3231-3236.

JIA Meisheng, CHEN Guohua. Dynamic reliability of horizontal LPG tank exposed to fire[J]. Chemical Industry and Engineering Progress, 2017, 36(09): 3231-3236.

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火灾环境液化石油气卧罐动态可靠性分析

Dynamic reliability of horizontal LPG tank exposed to fire

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