全球典型原材料资源关键性评价方法研究进展

doi:10.16085/j.issn.1000-6613.2024-0348

化工进展 ›› 2025, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (3): 1619-1631.DOI: 10.16085/j.issn.1000-6613.2024-0348

全球典型原材料资源关键性评价方法研究进展

高文芳¹^,²(), 郭天玥¹, 高放³, 于曼¹, 崔晗¹^,⁴, 李华杰¹, 阎文艺², 吕龙义¹(), 孙峙²()

^1.河北工业大学能源与环境工程学院，天津 300401
^2.中国科学院过程工程研究所，国家基础学科公共科学数据中心，北京 100190
^3.北控水务(中国)投资有限公司，北京 100102
^4.中国科学院生态环境研究中心，城市与区域生态国家重点实验室，北京 100085

收稿日期:2024-03-02 修回日期:2024-05-25 出版日期:2025-03-25 发布日期:2025-04-15
通讯作者: 吕龙义,孙峙
作者简介:高文芳（1990—），女，副教授，博士生导师，研究方向为关键金属资源循环技术与评价。E-mail：wfgao@hebut.edu.cn。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金(52300232);天津市教委项目(2022KJ098)

A critical review on typical criticality evaluation methods for raw materials worldwide

GAO Wenfang¹^,²(), GUO Tianyue¹, GAO Fang³, YU Man¹, CUI Han¹^,⁴, LI Huajie¹, YAN Wenyi², LYU Longyi¹(), SUN Zhi²()

^1.School of Energy and Environmental Engineering, Hebei University of Technology, Tianjin 300401, China
^2.Chinese Academy of Sciences, Institute of Process Engineering, National Basic Public Science Data Center, Beijing 100190, China
^3.Beijing Enterprises Water Group (China) Investment Limited, Beijing 100102, China
^4.State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, China

Received:2024-03-02 Revised:2024-05-25 Online:2025-03-25 Published:2025-04-15
Contact: LYU Longyi, SUN Zhi

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

随着工业化进程的不断发展，人类社会对矿产原材料的开采不断加深，许多资源面临供应危机。为了更好地计算该矿产的关键性，同时满足低碳的需求，众多研究团队的原材料关键性研究方法相继出现。本研究详细论述了美国、欧盟、中国的4种典型原材料关键性评价方法，及另外8种有重要研究价值的方法，针对73种关键性原材料深入分析各方法的优缺点及适用范围。通过对评价方法的评价框架进行梳理、对评价结果进行归纳、对评价的展现形式进行对比、对方法的具体应用进行总结，结果表明，大部分关键性评价都包含供应风险、供应限制的脆弱性以及环境影响三大指标，展现方法大致分为加权求和法和矩阵分析法。分析得出现阶段各评价方法存在评价对象局限、指标不全、准确性不高的问题。在此基础上，对原材料关键性的研究现状进行了讨论，确定了锂、钴等28种公认的关键原材料。最后，提出原材料关键性评价的未来发展需要具备四个基本性质，即全面性、可自定义性、可预见性和准确性，以促进关键性评价在工业生产过程中的普及，为推进工业绿色低碳化提供理论和数据支持。

关键词: 原材料关键性, 综合评价, 供应风险, 矩阵分析, 环境影响

Abstract:

With the continuous development of industrialization, human society's exploitation of mineral raw materials is deepening, and many resources are facing supply crises. In order to better calculate the criticality of the mineral and meet low-carbon needs, numerous research teams have developed methods for studying the criticality of raw materials. This study provided a detailed discussion of four typical critical evaluation methods for raw materials in the United States, the European Union and China, as well as eight other methods with significant research value. A thorough analysis of the advantages, disadvantages and applicability of each method was conducted for 73 critical raw materials. By sorting out the evaluation framework of the evaluation method, summarizing the evaluation results, comparing the presentation forms of the evaluation and summarizing the specific applications of the method, the results showed that most critical evaluations included three major indicators: supply risk, vulnerability to supply constraints and environmental impact. The presentation methods were roughly divided into weighted sum method and matrix analysis method. Analysis indicated that there were limitations in the evaluation objects, incomplete indicators and low accuracy in each evaluation method at the current stage. On this basis, the current research status of the criticality of raw materials was discussed and 28 recognized key raw materials such as lithium and cobalt were identified. Finally, it was proposed that the future development of critical evaluation of raw materials needed to possess four basic properties, namely comprehensiveness, customizability, predictability and accuracy in order to promote the popularization of critical evaluation in industrial production processes and provide theoretical and data support for promoting industrial green and low-carbon.

Key words: raw material criticality, comprehensive evaluation, supply risk, matrix analysis, environmental impact

中图分类号:

TD989

高文芳, 郭天玥, 高放, 于曼, 崔晗, 李华杰, 阎文艺, 吕龙义, 孙峙. 全球典型原材料资源关键性评价方法研究进展[J]. 化工进展, 2025, 44(3): 1619-1631.

GAO Wenfang, GUO Tianyue, GAO Fang, YU Man, CUI Han, LI Huajie, YAN Wenyi, LYU Longyi, SUN Zhi. A critical review on typical criticality evaluation methods for raw materials worldwide[J]. Chemical Industry and Engineering Progress, 2025, 44(3): 1619-1631.

图/表 8

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项目	中国科学院^[12]	Graedel等^[10]	日本低碳团队^[21]	欧盟^[13]	韩国地球科学产业资源院^[22]	美国国家科学技术委员会（NSTC）^[23]	中国工业经济所^[24]	中国地质科学院^[25]	美国国家研究委员会^[9]	日本新能源产业技术开发机构^[26]	荷兰统计中心^[27]	德国技术评估研究所^[28]	次数统计
供应风险
供应集中度		√	√	√	√	√	√	√		√		√	9
全球治理指标		√		√		√	√	√	√			√	7
二次资源利用率	√			√					√	√		√	5
政治影响	√	√	√	√	√								5
人类发展指数		√	√				√		√				4
供应潜力		√					√	√			√		4
可开采年限		√							√	√		√	4
进口依赖性	√				√				√				3
伴生金属		√							√			√	3
可替代性	√			√	√								3
政策潜力指数		√					√		√				3
市场规模					√	√			√				3
政策感知指数			√										1
交通条件依赖性	√												1
资源耗尽时间		√											1
储量产量比									√				1
脆弱性/经济重要性
替代可能性		√	√		√		√	√	√	√		√	8
资源价值重要性	√	√	√	√	√		√	√			√		8
需求变化								√		√	√	√	4
价格波动稳定性						√		√		√	√		4
原材料价值		√						√	√	√			4
进口依赖性		√					√	√					3
进口厂商集中度								√		√			2
未来供需比									√			√	2
使用受限										√	√		2
价格变动										√	√		2
创新可能性		√											1
环境相关
环境影响				√			√		√	√		√	5
原材料毒性等级	√	√											2
环境绩效指数	√												1

项目	中国科学院^[12]	Graedel等^[10]	日本低碳团队^[21]	欧盟^[13]	韩国地球科学产业资源院^[22]	美国国家科学技术委员会（NSTC）^[23]	中国工业经济所^[24]	中国地质科学院^[25]	美国国家研究委员会^[9]	日本新能源产业技术开发机构^[26]	荷兰统计中心^[27]	德国技术评估研究所^[28]	次数统计
供应风险
供应集中度		√	√	√	√	√	√	√		√		√	9
全球治理指标		√		√		√	√	√	√			√	7
二次资源利用率	√			√					√	√		√	5
政治影响	√	√	√	√	√								5
人类发展指数		√	√				√		√				4
供应潜力		√					√	√			√		4
可开采年限		√							√	√		√	4
进口依赖性	√				√				√				3
伴生金属		√							√			√	3
可替代性	√			√	√								3
政策潜力指数		√					√		√				3
市场规模					√	√			√				3
政策感知指数			√										1
交通条件依赖性	√												1
资源耗尽时间		√											1
储量产量比									√				1
脆弱性/经济重要性
替代可能性		√	√		√		√	√	√	√		√	8
资源价值重要性	√	√	√	√	√		√	√			√		8
需求变化								√		√	√	√	4
价格波动稳定性						√		√		√	√		4
原材料价值		√						√	√	√			4
进口依赖性		√					√	√					3
进口厂商集中度								√		√			2
未来供需比									√			√	2
使用受限										√	√		2
价格变动										√	√		2
创新可能性		√											1
环境相关
环境影响				√			√		√	√		√	5
原材料毒性等级	√	√											2
环境绩效指数	√												1

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全球典型原材料资源关键性评价方法研究进展

A critical review on typical criticality evaluation methods for raw materials worldwide

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