化工园区多灾种耦合关系模型及断链减灾模式

doi:10.16085/j.issn.1000-6613.2017-1758

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 化工园区危险源众多，在各类自然灾害及工业事故影响下极易发生级联效应，扩大事故后果，灾害与事故之间的耦合关系及断链减灾工作逐渐受到广泛关注。本文通过统计分析自然灾害诱发的化工事故（Na-Tech），分析单一自然灾害与工业事故之间及化工园区多灾种之间耦合关系的形成机理，明确灾害与事故耦合关系特点；应用复杂网络理论，探讨灾害事件间的直接及间接作用关系，建立化工园区多灾种耦合关系数学模型，并提出基于网络节点重要度的断链减灾模式；以某化工园区为例，应用统计数据及数学模型，通过对比不同网络节点对系统扰动值的影响程度，对实例园区开展断链减灾分析。为园区灾害及事故预防、断链减灾、应急救援等工作的开展提供参考依据。

关键词: 化工园区, 多灾种耦合, Na-Tech事件, 复杂网络, 断链减灾, 安全, 模型, 控制

Abstract: There are many hazards in the Chemical Industry Park, which are prone to cascade effect under the influence of various natural disasters and industrial accidents. The relationship between disasters and accidents and the work of chain-cutting disaster mitigation are gradually paid more and more attention. Through the statistical analysis of chemical accidents induced by natural disasters (Na-Tech) based on the view of science of disaster, the formation mechanism of single natural disaster and industrial accident and multi-hazard coupling relationship in Chemical Industry Park(three stages:the chain of natural disasters, Na-tech accidents and Domino effects) was analyzed. The characteristics of coupling relationship between disasters and accidents were clarified. Based on the complex network theory, the direct and indirect effects of disasters were explored, the mathematical model of multi-hazard coupling chain relationship in Chemical Industry Park was established, and the model of chain-cutting disaster mitigation based on the importance of network nodes was proposed. With the application example of a Chemical Industry Park by applying statistical data and mathematical model, and comparing the influence of different network nodes on the system disturbance value (node importance), the chain-cutting disaster mitigation of multi-hazard coupling chain network was analyzed. It is of great significance to further promote the risk assessment and safety management of disasters and accidents in Chemical Industry Park, and to carry out the work of disaster prevention, chain-cutting disaster mitigation, emergency rescue, and so on.

Key words: chemical industry park, coupling multi-hazard, Na-Tech event, complex network, chain-cutting disaster mitigation, safety, model, control

中图分类号:

TQ086
X937

陈国华, 邹梦婷. 化工园区多灾种耦合关系模型及断链减灾模式[J]. 化工进展, 2018, 37(08): 3271-3279.

CHEN Guohua, ZOU Mengting. Coupling relationship model of multi-hazard and pattern of chain-cutting disaster mitigation in Chemical Industry Park[J]. Chemical Industry and Engineering Progress, 2018, 37(08): 3271-3279.

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