A critical review on typical criticality evaluation methods for raw materials worldwide

doi:10.16085/j.issn.1000-6613.2024-0348

Abstract

Abstract:

With the continuous development of industrialization, human society's exploitation of mineral raw materials is deepening, and many resources are facing supply crises. In order to better calculate the criticality of the mineral and meet low-carbon needs, numerous research teams have developed methods for studying the criticality of raw materials. This study provided a detailed discussion of four typical critical evaluation methods for raw materials in the United States, the European Union and China, as well as eight other methods with significant research value. A thorough analysis of the advantages, disadvantages and applicability of each method was conducted for 73 critical raw materials. By sorting out the evaluation framework of the evaluation method, summarizing the evaluation results, comparing the presentation forms of the evaluation and summarizing the specific applications of the method, the results showed that most critical evaluations included three major indicators: supply risk, vulnerability to supply constraints and environmental impact. The presentation methods were roughly divided into weighted sum method and matrix analysis method. Analysis indicated that there were limitations in the evaluation objects, incomplete indicators and low accuracy in each evaluation method at the current stage. On this basis, the current research status of the criticality of raw materials was discussed and 28 recognized key raw materials such as lithium and cobalt were identified. Finally, it was proposed that the future development of critical evaluation of raw materials needed to possess four basic properties, namely comprehensiveness, customizability, predictability and accuracy in order to promote the popularization of critical evaluation in industrial production processes and provide theoretical and data support for promoting industrial green and low-carbon.

Key words: raw material criticality, comprehensive evaluation, supply risk, matrix analysis, environmental impact

摘要：

随着工业化进程的不断发展，人类社会对矿产原材料的开采不断加深，许多资源面临供应危机。为了更好地计算该矿产的关键性，同时满足低碳的需求，众多研究团队的原材料关键性研究方法相继出现。本研究详细论述了美国、欧盟、中国的4种典型原材料关键性评价方法，及另外8种有重要研究价值的方法，针对73种关键性原材料深入分析各方法的优缺点及适用范围。通过对评价方法的评价框架进行梳理、对评价结果进行归纳、对评价的展现形式进行对比、对方法的具体应用进行总结，结果表明，大部分关键性评价都包含供应风险、供应限制的脆弱性以及环境影响三大指标，展现方法大致分为加权求和法和矩阵分析法。分析得出现阶段各评价方法存在评价对象局限、指标不全、准确性不高的问题。在此基础上，对原材料关键性的研究现状进行了讨论，确定了锂、钴等28种公认的关键原材料。最后，提出原材料关键性评价的未来发展需要具备四个基本性质，即全面性、可自定义性、可预见性和准确性，以促进关键性评价在工业生产过程中的普及，为推进工业绿色低碳化提供理论和数据支持。

关键词: 原材料关键性, 综合评价, 供应风险, 矩阵分析, 环境影响

CLC Number:

TD989

GAO Wenfang, GUO Tianyue, GAO Fang, YU Man, CUI Han, LI Huajie, YAN Wenyi, LYU Longyi, SUN Zhi. A critical review on typical criticality evaluation methods for raw materials worldwide[J]. Chemical Industry and Engineering Progress, 2025, 44(3): 1619-1631.

高文芳, 郭天玥, 高放, 于曼, 崔晗, 李华杰, 阎文艺, 吕龙义, 孙峙. 全球典型原材料资源关键性评价方法研究进展[J]. 化工进展, 2025, 44(3): 1619-1631.

Figures/Tables 8

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项目	中国科学院^[12]	Graedel等^[10]	日本低碳团队^[21]	欧盟^[13]	韩国地球科学产业资源院^[22]	美国国家科学技术委员会（NSTC）^[23]	中国工业经济所^[24]	中国地质科学院^[25]	美国国家研究委员会^[9]	日本新能源产业技术开发机构^[26]	荷兰统计中心^[27]	德国技术评估研究所^[28]	次数统计
供应风险
供应集中度		√	√	√	√	√	√	√		√		√	9
全球治理指标		√		√		√	√	√	√			√	7
二次资源利用率	√			√					√	√		√	5
政治影响	√	√	√	√	√								5
人类发展指数		√	√				√		√				4
供应潜力		√					√	√			√		4
可开采年限		√							√	√		√	4
进口依赖性	√				√				√				3
伴生金属		√							√			√	3
可替代性	√			√	√								3
政策潜力指数		√					√		√				3
市场规模					√	√			√				3
政策感知指数			√										1
交通条件依赖性	√												1
资源耗尽时间		√											1
储量产量比									√				1
脆弱性/经济重要性
替代可能性		√	√		√		√	√	√	√		√	8
资源价值重要性	√	√	√	√	√		√	√			√		8
需求变化								√		√	√	√	4
价格波动稳定性						√		√		√	√		4
原材料价值		√						√	√	√			4
进口依赖性		√					√	√					3
进口厂商集中度								√		√			2
未来供需比									√			√	2
使用受限										√	√		2
价格变动										√	√		2
创新可能性		√											1
环境相关
环境影响				√			√		√	√		√	5
原材料毒性等级	√	√											2
环境绩效指数	√												1

项目	中国科学院^[12]	Graedel等^[10]	日本低碳团队^[21]	欧盟^[13]	韩国地球科学产业资源院^[22]	美国国家科学技术委员会（NSTC）^[23]	中国工业经济所^[24]	中国地质科学院^[25]	美国国家研究委员会^[9]	日本新能源产业技术开发机构^[26]	荷兰统计中心^[27]	德国技术评估研究所^[28]	次数统计
供应风险
供应集中度		√	√	√	√	√	√	√		√		√	9
全球治理指标		√		√		√	√	√	√			√	7
二次资源利用率	√			√					√	√		√	5
政治影响	√	√	√	√	√								5
人类发展指数		√	√				√		√				4
供应潜力		√					√	√			√		4
可开采年限		√							√	√		√	4
进口依赖性	√				√				√				3
伴生金属		√							√			√	3
可替代性	√			√	√								3
政策潜力指数		√					√		√				3
市场规模					√	√			√				3
政策感知指数			√										1
交通条件依赖性	√												1
资源耗尽时间		√											1
储量产量比									√				1
脆弱性/经济重要性
替代可能性		√	√		√		√	√	√	√		√	8
资源价值重要性	√	√	√	√	√		√	√			√		8
需求变化								√		√	√	√	4
价格波动稳定性						√		√		√	√		4
原材料价值		√						√	√	√			4
进口依赖性		√					√	√					3
进口厂商集中度								√		√			2
未来供需比									√			√	2
使用受限										√	√		2
价格变动										√	√		2
创新可能性		√											1
环境相关
环境影响				√			√		√	√		√	5
原材料毒性等级	√	√											2
环境绩效指数	√												1

[1]	LI Jingying, MA Longfei, PAN Yibo, LU Shan, ZHANG Hongjuan, XU Long, MA Xiaoxun. Life cycle environmental analysis of coke oven gas to liquefied natural gas based on decarburization and methanation processes [J]. Chemical Industry and Engineering Progress, 2024, 43(5): 2872-2879.
[2]	ZONG Yuhang, CHI Yaxin, ZHANG Xihua, WANG Zhaolong, ZHENG Yang, JIANG Yongfang. Comprehensive evaluation on the typical utilization and disposal processes for resin powder from waste printed circuit boards by analytic network process [J]. Chemical Industry and Engineering Progress, 2024, 43(4): 2117-2125.
[3]	YAO Fuchun, BI Yingying, LIU Chao, TANG Chen, LI Zeying, ZHANG Yaozong, SUN Xiaoming. Matrix analysis method to optimize the ozone membrane contact mass transfer technology [J]. Chemical Industry and Engineering Progress, 2024, 43(11): 6553-6562.
[4]	SHANG Li, LIU Shuang, SHEN Qun, ZHANG Lingyun, SUN Nannan, WEI Wei. Comprehensive evaluation of low carbon performance of typical carbon dioxide utilization technologies [J]. Chemical Industry and Engineering Progress, 2022, 41(3): 1199-1208.
[5]	HOU Jianyong, YAN Fang, WANG Hao, CHENG Xiaohui, YAN Houhua, HU Gang. Comprehensive evaluation of operation stability of wet desulfurization system based on causal-fuzzy AHP [J]. Chemical Industry and Engineering Progress, 2022, 41(2): 569-583.
[6]	Dongya ZHAO, Fan LU, Lei CAO, Zhaomin LI, Teng LU, Jianping YANG. Evaluation for flue gas-assisted SAGD based on the method of a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation [J]. Chemical Industry and Engineering Progress, 2021, 40(1): 89-98.
[7]	Weijing YU, Chao MA, Wenbin TAN, Lei CUI, Yubin CHEN, Changhao LI. Research progress of white plume control in coal-fired power plants [J]. Chemical Industry and Engineering Progress, 2020, 39(S1): 232-241.
[8]	Junjie LI,Wanjing CHENG,Mei LIANG,Xiaohui YAN,Jingdong YANG,Yueling ZHANG,Lianyong FENG,Yajun TIAN,Kechang XIE. Comprehensive evaluation on sustainable development of China’s advanced coal to chemicals industry based on EWM-AHP [J]. Chemical Industry and Engineering Progress, 2020, 39(4): 1329-1338.
[9]	Nanjun LAI, Jun LI, Yiming LYU, Zhongrong LIU, Min LI, Dongyu QIAO, Jiawen DENG. Effect analysis of chemical paraffin removal and control technology in Ansai Oilfield [J]. Chemical Industry and Engineering Progress, 2020, 39(10): 4164-4174.
[10]	Zejian HUANG,Yiqing LUO,Xigang YUAN. Environmental impact assessment of water treatment integrated microalgae biodiesel life cycle system [J]. Chemical Industry and Engineering Progress, 2020, 39(1): 34-41.
[11]	Weijing YU,Yongwei WANG,Xiaolin LÜ,Yuannan XIONG,Teng LONG,Peizheng LI. Evaluation of potential and control strategy of white plume in the coal-fired power plants [J]. Chemical Industry and Engineering Progress, 2019, 38(03): 1579-1586.
[12]	MA Shuangchen, FAN Zixuan, WEN Jiaqi, MA Lan, ZHAO Baohua, ZHANG Jinzhu, SUN Yao. Evaluation on technology of desulfurization wastewater from coal-fired power plant based on fuzzy AHP [J]. Chemical Industry and Engineering Progress, 2018, 37(11): 4451-4459.
[13]	ZHOU Jianyang, LUO Xiaoping, LI Haiyan, GUO Feng, DENG Cong, XIE Mingyu. Comprehensive evaluation of the influence of nanoparticle concentrations on heat transfer and pressure drop of nanofluid flow boiling [J]. Chemical Industry and Engineering Progree, 2017, 36(01): 71-80.
[14]	LI Weiyi, GUO Qiang, GAO Jing. Comprehensive evaluation analysis of ORC system using different working media with internal heat exchanger [J]. Chemical Industry and Engineering Progree, 2015, 34(08): 2977-2982.
[15]	WANG Yuchen1，CHI Yongzhi1，SU Runxi1，SUN Tao2，YANG Heyi2，YUAN Hongying1，. Research development on zero liquid discharge technologies of concentrated brine [J]. Chemical Industry and Engineering Progree, 2013, 32(06): 1423-1428.