关键词: 绿氨, 长周期, 模型, 碳排放因子, 二氧化碳, 经济性

Abstract:

With the increasing global demand for clean energy, the development and application of green ammonia as a carbon free clean fuel have received widespread attention. The research work in this article broke through the limitations of existing studies that mainly focused on short-term modeling and optimization of green ammonia synthesis systems. And focusing on the issue of high production costs of clean fuels, it innovatively proposed a long-term green ammonia synthesis model that considered continuous changes in grid carbon emission factors. This model fully considered the greenness of the product and added economic indicators such as loans, income tax, and internal rate of return to achieve dual optimization of environmental and economic benefits. Through simulation analysis of a green ammonia project under three different scenarios of changes in grid power carbon emission factors, this article revealed the positive impact of reducing grid power carbon emission factors on the system's grid power proportion, stability, product output, and project revenue. The simulation results show that in the fast transition scenario, the project has the best economic benefits, and the optimal scale of the corresponding synthetic ammonia plant is 2.7×10⁵t/a. In this case, the total investment cost is 5.566×10⁹CNY, and the average production cost of green ammonia is 2218.6CNY/t. According to sensitivity analysis, the cost of wind turbines, the price of green ammonia and off grid electricity prices have a significant impact on the average production cost of green ammonia. This study provides a scientific basis for the long-term planning and decision-making of green ammonia synthesis projects, which is of great significance for promoting the sustainable development of the green ammonia industry.

Key words: green ammonia, long term, model, carbon emission factor, carbon dioxide, economics