关键词: 时变可靠度, 威布尔分布, 灰色关联分析, 响应面法, 预测, 模型, 安全

Abstract:

In view of the problem that the reliability of chemical equipment changes at time or times of loading and other life indexes, a reliability evaluation method considering the factors affecting the operation of equipment was constructed based on the traditional reliability model, which can deal with the reliability calculation problems of operating condition, load, stress and strength changing with time. Firstly, the traditional Weibull distribution model was used to evaluate the reliability of the equipment and the main factors affecting Weibull distribution model parameters were selected by grey correlation analysis. Then, response surface method was applied to introduce the influencing factors of equipment operation into the failure rate model based on Weibull distribution and to establish a multivariable failure rate model. On this basis, time-varying reliability evaluation and fault prediction can be carried out. Finally, the method was applied to a chemical equipment to evaluate its time-varying reliability and predict its failure time, which can verify the effectiveness of the method.

Key words: time-varying reliability, Weibull distribution, grey correlation analysis, response surface method, prediction, model, safety