Methods analysis and frontiers review of vulnerability for coupled multi-hazard in Chemical Industry Park

doi:10.16085/j.issn.1000-6613.2018-1532

Abstract

Abstract:

With the increase of industrial accidents induced by natural disasters, the research on the vulnerability of Chemical Industry Park under the influence of coupled multi-hazard has received extensive attention. By summarizing the related concepts of vulnerability, the relationship between risk and vulnerability was analyzed. By analyzing the connotation of coupled multi-hazard in Chemical Industry Park, a coupled multi-hazard vulnerability framework was build, and the vulnerability evolution process under the single disaster, double disasters and coupled multi-hazard was studied. Based on the thoughts of coupled multi-hazard vulnerability assessment approach, the existing assessment methods for coupled multi-hazard vulnerability were divided, and the advantages and disadvantages of each assessment method were analyzed. Combined with the characteristics of coupled multi-hazard vulnerability in the Chemical Industry Park, the research that needed to be carried out in the vulnerability assessment of Chemical Industry Park when facing multi-perturbation was put forward, and the basis for the in-depth development of coupled multi-hazard vulnerability assessment was provided.

Key words: vulnerability, coupled multi-hazard, Chemical Industry Park, risk, frontier

摘要：

随着自然灾害诱发工业事故的增加，多灾种耦合影响下的化工园区脆弱性研究受到广泛关注。本文对国内外脆弱性的相关概念进行归纳总结，分析风险与脆弱性之间的关系；通过分析化工园区多灾种耦合内涵，构建多灾种耦合脆弱性框架，研究化工园区在单一灾害、两次灾害及多灾种耦合作用下的脆弱性演化过程；依据多灾种耦合脆弱性评估的思路，划分多灾种耦合脆弱性现有评估方法，分析各评估方法的优缺点；结合化工园区多灾种耦合脆弱性特点，提出面向多重扰动时化工园区脆弱性评估中亟待开展的研究内容，为深入开展多灾种耦合脆弱性评估提供依据。

关键词: 脆弱性, 多灾种耦合, 化工园区, 风险, 前沿

CLC Number:

X 937

Guohua CHEN, Mengting ZOU, Kongxing HUANG, Yunfeng YANG. Methods analysis and frontiers review of vulnerability for coupled multi-hazard in Chemical Industry Park[J]. Chemical Industry and Engineering Progress, 2019, 38(05): 2527-2535.

陈国华, 邹梦婷, 黄孔星, 杨运锋. 化工园区多灾种耦合脆弱性方法探究与前沿综述[J]. 化工进展, 2019, 38(05): 2527-2535.

Figures/Tables 10

References 45

1	魏利军, 师立晨 . 科技助力创建安全智慧型化工园区[J]. 中国安全生产科学技术, 2016, 12(10): 192.
	WEI L J , SHI L C . Technology helps create a safe and intelligent Chemical Industrial Park [J]. Journal of Safety Science and Technology, 2016, 12(10): 192.
2	HEWITT K , BURTON I . Hazardousness of a place: a regional ecology of damaging events [M]. Toronto: Toronto Press, 1971.
3	盖程程, 翁文国, 袁宏永 . 基于GIS的多灾种耦合综合风险评估[J]. 清华大学学报（自然科学版）, 2011, 51(5): 627-631.
	GAI C C , WENG W G , YUAN H Y . Multi-hazard risk assessment using GIS in urban areas [J]. Journal of Tsinghua University (Science and Technology), 2011, 51(5): 627-631.
4	CRUZ A , STEINBERG L J . Industry preparedness for earthquakes and earthquake-triggered Hazmat accidents in the 1999 Kocaeli earthquake[J]. Earthquake Spectra, 2012, 21(2): 285-303.
5	Environmental Protection Agency U. S. .Response to 2005 Hurricanes [EB/OL]. http: //www. epa. gov/katrina/testresults/murphy/. [2017-03-25].
6	孙亮, 顾建华 . 美国政府对卡特里娜飓风的调查报告联邦政府对卡特里娜飓风的响应: 经验与教训（一）[J]. 世界地震译丛, 2008, 9(1): 70-83.
	SUN L , GU J H . US government's report on hurricane Katrina the federal response to hurricane Katrina: lessons learned (one)[J]. Translated World Seismology, 2008, 9(1): 70-83.
7	TIMMERMAN P . Vulnerability, resilience and the collapse of society: a review of models and possible climatic applications [D]. Toronto: Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Toronto, 1981.
8	DOW K . Exploring differences in our common future(s): the meaning of vulnerability to global environmental change [J]. Geoforum, 1992, 23(3): 417-436.
9	GEORGE E C , SUSANNE C M , SAMUEL J R , et al . Assessing the vulnerability of coastal communities to extreme storms: the case of REVERE, MA., USA [J]. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 1998, 3(1): 59-82.
10	TURNER B , KASPERSON R E , MATSON P A , et al . A framework for vulnerability analysis in sustainability science [J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2003, 100(14): 8074-8079.
11	ADGER W N . Vulnerability [J]. Global Environmental Change, 2006, 16(3): 268-281.
12	FOLKE C , DANELL K , ELMQVIST T , et al . Managing climate change impacts to enhance the resilience and sustainability of Fennoscandian forests[J]. Ambio, 2007, 36(7): 528-533.
13	HINKEL J . “Indicators of vulnerability and adaptive capacity”: towards a clarification of the science-policy interface[J]. Global Environmental Change, 2011, 21(1): 198-208.
14	BEROYA-EITNER M A . Ecological vulnerability indicators[J]. Ecological Indicators, 2016, 60(2): 329-334.
15	LINA M B , JENNY M , CLARA V . Vulnerability of socio-ecological systems: a conceptual framework[J]. Ecological Indicators, 2018, 84(1): 632-647.
16	GALLOPIN G C . Linkages between vulnerability, resilience, and adaptive capacity[J]. Global Environmental Change, 2006, 16(3): 293-303.
17	李求进 . 化工园区区域脆弱性研究概述[C]// 中国职业安全健康协会2013年学术年会论文集. 福州：中国职业安全健康协会, 2013: 76-85.
	LI Q J . Research on regional vulnerability of Chemical Industry Park [C]// Proceedings of the 2013 Annual Meeting of China Occupational Safety and Health Association. Fuzhou: China Occupational Safety and Health Association, 2013: 76-85.
18	LUERS A L . The surface of vulnerability: an analytical framework for examining environmental change [J]. Global Environmental Change, 2005, 15(3): 214-223.
19	黄浪, 吴超, 杨冕, 等 . 韧性理论在安全科学领域中的应用[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2017, 27(3): 1-6.
	HUANG L , WU C , YANG M , et al . Application of resilience theory in field of safety science [J]. Journal of Safety Science and Technology, 2017, 27(3): 1-6.
20	FOLKE C . Resilience: the emergence of a perspective for social-ecological systems analyses [J]. Global Environmental Change, 2006, 16(3): 253-267.
21	HOSSEINI S , BARKER K , RAMIREZ-MARQUEZ J E . A review of definitions and measures of system resilience [J]. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2016, 145(2): 47-61.
22	CURRENTS P . A comparative analysis of disaster risk, vulnerability and resilience composite indicators [J]. PLOS Currents, 2017, 9(3): 53-64.
23	VUGRIN E D , WARREN D E , EHLEN M A . A resilience assessment framework for infrastructure and economic systems: quantitative and qualitative resilience analysis of petrochemical supply chains to a hurricane [J]. Process Safety Progress, 2011, 30(3): 280-290.
24	陶鹏 . 基于脆弱性视角的灾害管理整合研究[J]. 公共行政评论, 2013, 6(2): 173-177.
	TAO P . Integrated disaster management: from the perspective of vulnerability science [J]. Journal of Public Administration, 2013, 6(2): 173-177.
25	陈国华 . 风险工程学[M]. 北京: 国防工业出版社, 2007.
	CHEN G H . Risk engineering [M]. Beijing: National Defense Industry Press,2007.
26	卢颖, 侯云玥, 郭良杰, 等 . 沿海城市多灾种耦合危险性评估的初步研究——以福建泉州为例[J]. 灾害学, 2015, 30(1): 211-216.
	LU Y , HOU Y Y , GUO L J , et al . Preliminary study on integrated assessment for multi-hazard of coastal city: case study of Quanzhou, Fujian Province [J]. Journal of Catastrophology, 2015, 30(1): 211-216.
27	明晓东, 徐伟, 刘宝印, 等 . 多灾种风险评估研究进展[J]. 灾害学, 2013, 28(1): 126-132.
	MING X D , XU W , LIU B Y , et al . An review of the progress on multi-risk assessment [J]. Journal of Catastrophology, 2013, 28(1): 126-132.
28	肖盛燮 . 灾变链式理论及应用[M]. 北京：科学出版社, 2006.
	XIAO S X . Cataclysmic chain theory and application [M]. Beijing: Science Press, 2006.
29	KABLAN M K A , DONGO K , COULIBALY M . Assessment of social vulnerability to flood in urban Côted’Ivoire using the MOVE framework [J]. Water, 2017, 9(4): 1-19.
30	DAVIDSON R . An urban earthquake disaster risk index [D]. California: Stanford University, 1997.
31	樊运晓, 罗云, 陈庆寿 . 区域承灾体脆弱性评价指标体系研究[J]. 现代地质, 2001, 15(1): 113-116.
	FAN Y X , LUO Y , CHEN Q S . Research on indexes system about regional vulnerability assessment [J]. Geoscience, 2001, 15(1): 113-116.
32	FEKETE A . Validation of a social vulnerability index in context to river-floods in Germany [J]. Natural Hazards & Earth System Sciences, 2009, 9(2): 393-403.
33	潘秀敏 . 基于脆弱性理论的电网故障分区研究[D]. 北京: 华北电力大学, 2015.
	PAN X M . Research on failure partition of power grid based on vulnerability theory [D]. Beijing: North China Electric Power University, 2015.
34	郭桂祯, 赵飞, 王丹丹 . 基于脆弱性曲线的台风-洪涝灾害链房屋倒损评估方法研究[J]. 灾害学, 2017, 32(4): 94-97.
	GUO G Z , ZHAO F , WANG D D . A method research of house damage in typhoon-flood disaster chain based oil vulnerability curve [J]. Journal of Catastrophology, 2017, 32(4): 94-97.
35	BADILLA C E . Flood hazard, vulnerability and risk assessment in the city of Turialba, Costa Rica[D]. The Netherlands: Inernational Institute for Geo-information Science and Earth Observation, 2002.
36	RANIEL M S . Development of wind vulnerability curves of low-rise wooden frame structures in the Greater Metro Manila Area, Philippines [J]. Philippine Engineering Journal, 2017, 38(1): 15-26.
37	CUTTER S L , Mitchell J T , Scott M S . Revealing the vulnerability of people and places: a case study of Georgetown County, South Carolina [J]. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 2000, 90(4): 713-737.
38	METZGER M J , LEEMANS R , SCHRÖTER D . A multidisciplinary multi-scale framework for assessing vulnerabilities to global change [J]. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation & Geoinformation, 2005, 7(4): 253-267.
39	HAMMOURI N , ELNAQA A . GIS based hydrogeological vulnerability mapping of groundwater resources in Jerash Area-Jordan [J]. Geofísica Internacional, 2013, 47(2): 85-97.
40	MAHSA A , PARHAM J . Vulnerability analysis of the urban environments to different seismic scenarios: residential buildings and associated population distribution modelling through integrating dasymetric mapping method and GIS [J]. Procedia Engineering, 2017, 198(9): 454-466.
41	李丽娜 . 城市化影响下自然-人工复合生态系统脆弱性评估模型构建与应用研究[D]. 上海：华东师范大学, 2010.
	LI L N . Construction and application of vulnerability assessment model of natural artificial composite ecosystem under the influence of urbanization [D]. Shanghai: East China Normal University, 2010.
42	JELLOULI O , BERNOUSSI A , AMHARREF M , et al . Vulnerability and protector control: cellular automata approach [J]. Journal of Cellular Automata, 2014, 5(4): 218-227.
43	梁志鹏, 彭显刚, 梁飞强, 等 . 基于元胞自动机演化的复杂电网脆弱性研究[J]. 广东电力, 2016, 29(1): 45-50.
	LIANG Z P , PENG X G , LIANG F Q , et al . Research on vulnerability of complex power grid based on cellular automata evolution [J]. Guangdong Electric Power, 2016, 29(1): 45-50.
44	王诗莹, 李向阳, 于峰 . 城市CIS物理关联脆弱性的动态分析方法[J]. 运筹与管理, 2017, 26(8): 115-122.
	WANG S Y , LI X Y , YU F . Dynamic assessment method of urban critical infrastructure system physical interdependency vulnerability [J]. Operations Research and Management Science, 2017, 26(8): 115-122.
45	GHEORGHE A V , DAN V V, KATINA P F , et al . Use of cellular automata in assessment of risk and vulnerability [J]. Topics in Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality, 2018, 34(11): 131-148.

年份	作者	脆弱性概念
1981	Timmerman^[7]	脆弱性是系统在灾后可能产生不利影响的程度
1992	Dow^[8]	脆弱性是社会个体或社会群体应对灾害事件的能力，这种能力源于他们在自然环境和社会环境中所处的形势
1998	George等^[9]	脆弱性是暴露性、适应能力（涵盖抵御能力及恢复能力）两大变量的函数
2003	Turner等^[10]	脆弱性是系统、子系统或系统组分由于暴露于危险源、扰动或压力，可能引起的损失程度
2006	Adger^[11]	脆弱性由暴露于扰动或外部压力、对扰动的敏感性和适应能力等部分构成
2007	Folke等^[12]	脆弱性是系统遭受不利影响，可能引起的潜在损失的程度
2011	Hinkel^[13]	脆弱性是系统容易受到影响以及不能应对不利气候变化（包括气候转变和极端情况）影响的程度
2016	Beroya-Eitner^[14]	脆弱性是指应对外部扰动（包括特定空间范围内的自然或人为因素）时，系统的弱阻力和低韧性
2018	Lina等^[15]	脆弱性是系统在受到不同类型（连续/瞬时；内部/外部）的不利影响时，系统功能损失的程度，与系统韧性（系统抵抗干扰的能力）成反比

年份	作者	脆弱性概念
1981	Timmerman^[7]	脆弱性是系统在灾后可能产生不利影响的程度
1992	Dow^[8]	脆弱性是社会个体或社会群体应对灾害事件的能力，这种能力源于他们在自然环境和社会环境中所处的形势
1998	George等^[9]	脆弱性是暴露性、适应能力（涵盖抵御能力及恢复能力）两大变量的函数
2003	Turner等^[10]	脆弱性是系统、子系统或系统组分由于暴露于危险源、扰动或压力，可能引起的损失程度
2006	Adger^[11]	脆弱性由暴露于扰动或外部压力、对扰动的敏感性和适应能力等部分构成
2007	Folke等^[12]	脆弱性是系统遭受不利影响，可能引起的潜在损失的程度
2011	Hinkel^[13]	脆弱性是系统容易受到影响以及不能应对不利气候变化（包括气候转变和极端情况）影响的程度
2016	Beroya-Eitner^[14]	脆弱性是指应对外部扰动（包括特定空间范围内的自然或人为因素）时，系统的弱阻力和低韧性
2018	Lina等^[15]	脆弱性是系统在受到不同类型（连续/瞬时；内部/外部）的不利影响时，系统功能损失的程度，与系统韧性（系统抵抗干扰的能力）成反比

[1]	ZHANG Tingting, ZUO Xuqian, TIAN Lingdi, WANG Shimeng. Construction method of volatile organic compounds emission inventory and factor database in chemical industry park [J]. Chemical Industry and Engineering Progress, 2023, 42(S1): 549-557.
[2]	LI Zhiyuan, HUANG Yaji, ZHAO Jiaqi, YU Mengzhu, ZHU Zhicheng, CHENG Haoqiang, SHI Hao, WANG Sheng. Characterization of heavy metals during co-pyrolysis of sludge with PVC [J]. Chemical Industry and Engineering Progress, 2023, 42(9): 4947-4956.
[3]	WU Zhanhua, SHENG Min. Pitfalls of accelerating rate calorimeter for reactivity hazard evaluation and risk assessment [J]. Chemical Industry and Engineering Progress, 2023, 42(7): 3374-3382.
[4]	LU Shijian, ZHANG Yuanyuan, WU Wenhua, YANG Fei, LIU Ling, KANG Guojun, LI Qingfang, CHEN Hongfu, WANG Ning, WANG Feng, ZHANG Juanjuan. Health risk assessment of nitrosamine pollutant diffusion in a million ton CO₂ capture project [J]. Chemical Industry and Engineering Progress, 2023, 42(6): 3209-3216.
[5]	ZHAO Jingbin, WANG Yanfu, WANG Tao, MA Weikai, WANG Chen. Vulnerability assessment of storage tanks based on Monte Carlo simulation and dynamic event tree [J]. Chemical Industry and Engineering Progress, 2023, 42(5): 2751-2759.
[6]	LI Po, ZHANG Shanshan, SHI Jinqiu, GAO Hang, WANG Mingxin. Remediation of aniline-contaminated groundwater by activated persulfate and its environmental risks [J]. Chemical Industry and Engineering Progress, 2022, 41(5): 2753-2760.
[7]	FU Jie, QIU Chunsheng, WANG Chenchen, ZHENG Jinxin, LIU Nannan, WANG Dong, WANG Shaopo, SUN Liping. Migration, transformation and risk assessment of heavy metals in municipal sludge treated by thermal hydrolysis [J]. Chemical Industry and Engineering Progress, 2022, 41(4): 2216-2225.
[8]	CHEN Guodong, LIU Haicheng, MENG Wushuang, YOU Yu, ZHANG Hao, CAO Mengru. Research progress on artificial intervention and characterization of physicochemical properties of microplastics aging [J]. Chemical Industry and Engineering Progress, 2022, 41(12): 6443-6453.
[9]	ZHANG Yashan, CHEN Zongyao, MA Weifang. Research progress on the migration and transformation of microplastics and environmental risks [J]. Chemical Industry and Engineering Progress, 2022, 41(11): 6080-6098.
[10]	LI Songjing, FAN Xiangyang, CUI Erping, HU Chao, CUI Bingjian, LIU Yuan, LI Zhongyang, JING Ruoyao, LI Shengshu. Advances in behavioral characteristics and environmental risks of PPCPs in soil-crop systems [J]. Chemical Industry and Engineering Progress, 2021, 40(5): 2827-2838.
[11]	Guohua CHEN, Peng YANG, Yixin ZHAO, Xiaofeng LI, Yuanfei ZHAO. Vulnerability analysis of storage tank under the coupling effect of temperature load and blast fragment impact load [J]. Chemical Industry and Engineering Progress, 2021, 40(2): 1130-1136.
[12]	YANG Ting. “Six Integrations”of establishing and managing chemical parks in China [J]. Chemical Industry and Engineering Progress, 2021, 40(10): 5845-5853.
[13]	TANG Yafang, HUANG Zhankai, ZHAO Jia, HE Yanzhen, ZHAO Fuli, ZHANG Chunli, LIU Hongguang, HAN Enshan. Screening and application of hydroxylamines as inhibitors based on density functional theory [J]. Chemical Industry and Engineering Progress, 2021, 40(10): 5670-5677.
[14]	Yuejie WANG, Lingling LI. Fractionation characteristics and ecological risk evaluation of metals in FCC spent catalysts [J]. Chemical Industry and Engineering Progress, 2021, 40(1): 542-549.
[15]	Haiqing WANG, Yin LIU, Zhiquan GAO, Wenqi SUI. Quantitative analysis of influence of petrochemical plant modification and expansion on flare system load [J]. Chemical Industry and Engineering Progress, 2020, 39(9): 3842-3848.