Full lifecycle prediction model construction for dioxins in municipal solid waste incineration process: Method of coupling numerical simulation and fuzzy forest regression

doi:10.16085/j.issn.1000-6613.2024-1624

Abstract

Abstract:

Municipal solid waste incineration (MSWI) is a critical technology for waste management and energy recovery. The process inevitably generates trace amounts of persistent organic pollutant dioxins (DXN). The generation mechanism of this pollutant is still unclear and difficult to directly detect. To gain a comprehensive insight into the full lifecycle mechanism of DXN generation, decomposition, re-generation, adsorption and emission, a full lifecycle prediction model for DXN based on multi-software coupled numerical simulation and fuzzy forest regression was proposed. Firstly, a DXN full lifecycle numerical simulation model was developed using FLIC, Aspen Plus and Aspen Adsorption; subsequently, the DXN simulation mechanism data under multiple working conditions were obtained based on the design and implementation of bi-orthogonal experiments; and finally, a DXN full lifecycle prediction model was established by using the T-S fuzzy forest regression (TSFFR) algorithm. The results showed that the model could obtain the DXN concentration of the full lifecycle, which provided an effective support for the realization of pollution reduction optimal control.

Key words: municipal solid waste incineration, dioxin, full lifecycle prediction model, couple numerical simulation, fuzzy forest regression, mechanism model

摘要：

城市固废焚烧（MSWI）是实现废弃物管理和能源回收的关键技术之一，该过程不可避免地产生持久性有机污染物二英（DXN）。该污染物产生机理至今模糊不清且难以直接检测。为洞悉DXN生成、分解、再生成、吸附和排放的全生命周期机理，本文提出了基于耦合数值仿真和模糊森林回归的DXN全生命周期模型构建方法。首先，采用FLIC、Aspen Plus和Aspen Adsorption开发DXN全生命周期数值仿真模型。随后，进行双正交实验设计与实施以获得多工况下虚拟机理数据。最后，利用T-S模糊森林回归算法（TSFFR）建立DXN全生命周期模型。结果表明，该模型能够获取MSWI过程DXN全生命周期不同位置的浓度，为后续实现污染减排与优化控制提供了有效支撑。

关键词: 城市固废焚烧, 二英, 全生命周期建模, 耦合数值仿真, 模糊森林回归, 机理模型

CLC Number:

TQ545

TANG Jian, CUI Wangwang, CHEN Jiakun, WANG Tianzheng, QIAO Junfei. Full lifecycle prediction model construction for dioxins in municipal solid waste incineration process: Method of coupling numerical simulation and fuzzy forest regression[J]. Chemical Industry and Engineering Progress, 2025, 44(8): 4628-4647.

汤健, 崔旺旺, 陈佳昆, 王天峥, 乔俊飞. 城市固废焚烧过程二英全生命周期预测模型的构建：耦合数值仿真和模糊森林回归的方法[J]. 化工进展, 2025, 44(8): 4628-4647.

Figures/Tables 29

References 33

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事项	所用方法
离散化方法	一阶迎风差分
节点数	20
物料平衡	仅对流
动量平衡	Kaman-Kozeny方程
能量平衡	等温
动力学模型	线性集总阻力
传质系数	常数
等温线	朗缪尔Ⅰ型

事项	所用方法
离散化方法	一阶迎风差分
节点数	20
物料平衡	仅对流
动量平衡	Kaman-Kozeny方程
能量平衡	等温
动力学模型	线性集总阻力
传质系数	常数
等温线	朗缪尔Ⅰ型

参数	数值
额定处理量/t·d^-1	800
实际处理量/t·d^-1	624
炉排类型	—
炉排长×宽/m	11×12.9
炉排速度/m·h^-1	8
一次风流量（标准状况）/m³·h^-1	65400
二次风流量（标准状况）/m³·h^-1	7500
一次风温度/℃	200
一次风分布/%	24.31、43.35、19.27、13.07

参数	数值
额定处理量/t·d^-1	800
实际处理量/t·d^-1	624
炉排类型	—
炉排长×宽/m	11×12.9
炉排速度/m·h^-1	8
一次风流量（标准状况）/m³·h^-1	65400
二次风流量（标准状况）/m³·h^-1	7500
一次风温度/℃	200
一次风分布/%	24.31、43.35、19.27、13.07

工业分析（收到基）	质量分数/%	元素分析（干燥基）	质量分数/%
水分	38.48	C	50.55
挥发分	41.80	H	7.79
固定碳	6.56	O	18.80
灰分	13.16	N	0.40
		S	0.27
		Cl	0.79