Abstract: With economic globalization,more overseas petrochemical engineering projects are constructed by Chinese companies. Many uncertainty factors in the supply chain of international petrochemical engineering project are resulted from the characteristics of petrochemical engineering projects and global procurement. In order to analyze the influence of uncertainty factors on international petrochemical engineering projects,an overseas ethylene cracking project was taken as example. According to the characteristics of the actual project,an evaluation model of total construction cost of supply chain was set up,and purchasing price,unit freight cost,storage time and exchange rate of currency were chosen for sensitivity analysis. By calculating the sensitivity coefficient of each factor,the sensitive factors of the total construction cost of supply chain in petrochemical engineering project were identified. Purchasing price and exchange rate were found to be more sensitive and corresponding solutions were also discussed. The evaluation model of total construction cost and the method of sensitivity analysis are applicable for supply chain in international petrochemical engineering project.

Key words: petrochemical engineering project, supply chain, construction cost, sensitivity analysis

摘要： 在经济全球化的发展趋势下,中国企业在境外建设的石化工程项目日益增多.国际石化工程项目的供应链结构复杂,使得影响该类型工程供应链成本的不确定性因素较多.为了研究不同因素对国际石化工程项目供应链总建设成本的影响的大小,以海外乙烯裂解项目为例,针对实际工程供应链的特点,建立了供应链总建设成本的评价模型,选取采购价格、单位运费、库存时间和汇率4个不确定性因素,利用敏感性分析的方法分别计算各因素的敏感度系数,找出敏感因素,并针对采购价格和汇率较为敏感的两个因素介绍了一些对应的解决措施.结果说明了建立的供应链总成本模型可当作敏感性分析的评价指标,该方法适用于国际石化工程项目供应链的风险识别.

关键词: 石化工程项目, 供应链, 建设成本, 敏感性分析