智能化风险及可操作性（HAZOP）分析系统研究进展

doi:10.16085/j.issn.1000-6613.2017-1061

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 通过梳理智能化风险及可操作性（HAZOP）分析的各类方法，将其分为定性分析和定量分析两大领域，详细介绍了不同的研究方法及其优缺点，并结合实例对有代表性的方法作了详细阐述。智能化HAZOP定性分析系统的研究主要集中在建立专家知识库的方法上，其中基于深层知识建立专家知识库的研究相对较多，该方法虽然能够揭示偏差产生的机理、传递路径，但是分析结果准确度较差。基于经验知识、定性分析与定量分析相结合及基于动态模拟的HAZOP定量分析是实现智能化HAZOP定量分析的3种主要方法，是由模糊定量向精确定量、由静态分析向动态分析发展的过程。基于动态模拟的智能化HAZOP定量分析不仅研究偏差的数值，而且研究偏差的持续时间对过程系统的影响，分析结果更加精确，是较为完善的定量分析方法。该方法借助于商用模拟软件，使不具备丰富经验的分析人员也可以完成精确的HAZOP分析。"动态偏差的阶梯化求解法"使分析动态偏差方便、易行，基于该方法建立的偏差"层级"模型充分说明了处于不同层级的偏差对过程系统的不同影响。在分析智能化HAZOP分析系统发展历程基础上，结合最新研究进展，预测了其发展趋势。

关键词: 风险及可操作性, 智能化, 定性分析, 定量分析, 动态模拟

Abstract: By combing various methods of intelligent HAZOP analysis,it can be divided into two fields:qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis. The different research methods and their advantages and disadvantages are introduced in detail,and the representative methods are described in detail with examples. The research about intelligent HAZOP qualitative analysis system mainly focus on the method of establishing expert knowledge base,especially on establishing the intelligent HAZOP qualitative analysis system which uses expert knowledge base based on SDG model. The results of intelligent HAZOP quantitative analysis are more accurate than qualitative analysis,and thus the intelligent HAZOP quantitative analysis has become the main research field in recent years. There are three kinds of methods of intelligent HAZOP quantitative analysis,which are based on experience knowledge,integrate qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis and dynamic simulation. It is a process from fuzzy quantitative to exact quantitative and from static analysis to dynamic analysis. Based on dynamic simulation of intelligent HAZOP quantitative analysis system,which finds that the process system is influenced by deviation value and duration,makes the HAZOP analysis results more accurate. With the help of commercial simulation software,the dynamic simulation enables the analysts without sufficient experience to perform accurate HAZOP analysis. "Dynamic Deviation Delaminated Solution"(DDDS) makes it easy to analyze the influence of dynamic deviation. Meanwhile,based on DDDS method,the deviation "Hierarchy" model of HAZOP quantitative analysis displays the influence of deviation's every states. Based on the analysis of the development of the intelligent HAZOP analysis system and its latest research progress,the development trend of the intelligent analysis system is forecasted.

Key words: HAZOP, intelligent, qualitative analysis, quantitative analysis, dynamic simulation

中图分类号:

周广文, 杨霞, 郑世清. 智能化风险及可操作性（HAZOP）分析系统研究进展[J]. 化工进展, 2018, 37(03): 815-821.

ZHOU Guangwen, YANG Xia, ZHENG Shiqing. Research progress of intelligent HAZOP analysis system[J]. Chemical Industry and Engineering Progress, 2018, 37(03): 815-821.

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