关键词: 石化工程项目, 供应链, 建设成本, 敏感性分析

Abstract: With economic globalization,more overseas petrochemical engineering projects are constructed by Chinese companies. Many uncertainty factors in the supply chain of international petrochemical engineering project are resulted from the characteristics of petrochemical engineering projects and global procurement. In order to analyze the influence of uncertainty factors on international petrochemical engineering projects,an overseas ethylene cracking project was taken as example. According to the characteristics of the actual project,an evaluation model of total construction cost of supply chain was set up,and purchasing price,unit freight cost,storage time and exchange rate of currency were chosen for sensitivity analysis. By calculating the sensitivity coefficient of each factor,the sensitive factors of the total construction cost of supply chain in petrochemical engineering project were identified. Purchasing price and exchange rate were found to be more sensitive and corresponding solutions were also discussed. The evaluation model of total construction cost and the method of sensitivity analysis are applicable for supply chain in international petrochemical engineering project.

Key words: petrochemical engineering project, supply chain, construction cost, sensitivity analysis