Abstract:

With the rapid development of carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) technology, the scale of CO₂ pipeline transportation has been continuously expanding, and the risk of pipeline leakage has also attracted much attention. To ensure the safe operation and management of CO₂ pipelines and provide more powerful support for the safe implementation of global CCUS projects, this paper systematically reviews the current research status in aspects such as the hazards of CO₂ pipeline leakage, exposure concentration regulations, pipeline failure probability, leakage diffusion concentration and distance, and pipeline leakage risk assessment methods. The current research status indicates that there is a lack of research on low-temperature frostbite, noise pollution and impurity hazards caused by CO₂ pipeline leakage. The safety threshold for the diffusion concentration of CO₂ leakage caused by CO₂ pipeline leakage is not uniformly stipulated. When calculating the failure probability of CO₂ pipelines, the failure probability of natural gas pipelines is mostly adopted, and the failure probability is not corrected according to the actual situation of the pipelines. At present, there is insufficient experimental research on industrial-scale CO₂ pipelines, and it is difficult to integrate and analyze the risk consequences caused by CO₂ pipeline leakage under different experimental environments. The research on the concentration of CO₂ leakage and diffusion is mainly based on commercial software simulation, which can be used for the analysis of concentration risk consequences, but the applicability and accuracy of the software need to be improved. The research on the CO₂ leakage and diffusion concentration model based on theoretical model analysis is insufficient. The risk assessment of CO₂ pipeline leakage mainly adopts the quantitative risk assessment (QRA) method, which is relatively single. The introduction of machine learning can bring new vitality and higher accuracy to the risk assessment of CO₂ pipeline leakage.

Key words: carbon dioxide, pipeline leakage, failure probability, numerical simulation, diffusion concentration, safety, risk assessment

摘要：

随着碳捕集、利用与封存（carbon capture, utilization and storage，CCUS）技术的快速发展，CO₂管道运输规模不断扩大，其管道泄漏风险的研究也备受关注。为了保障CO₂管道的安全运行和管理，为全球CCUS项目的安全实施提供更有力的支持，本文系统梳理了CO₂的管道泄漏危害、暴露浓度规定、管道失效概率、泄漏扩散浓度及距离和管道泄漏风险评估方法等方面的研究现状。研究现状表明，与CO₂管道泄漏引起的低温冻伤、噪声污染和杂质危害相关的研究缺乏；管道泄漏导致的CO₂泄漏扩散，其浓度的安全阈值规定不统一；在计算CO₂管道失效概率时，大部分采用天然气管道失效概率，且未根据管道实际情况进行失效概率修正；目前对工业规模CO₂管道的实验研究不足，且很难整合分析不同实验环境下CO₂管道泄漏造成的后果；CO₂泄漏扩散浓度的研究主要是基于商业软件模拟，可以用于浓度风险后果分析，但软件的适用性和准确性有待提高；对基于理论模型分析的CO₂泄漏扩散浓度模型研究不足；目前CO₂管道泄漏的风险评估主要采用的是定量风险评价（quantitative risk assessment，QRA）方法，风险评估方法比较单一；机器学习的引入可以为CO₂管道泄漏风险评估带来新的活力和更高的准确性。

关键词: 二氧化碳, 管道泄漏, 失效概率, 数值模拟, 扩散浓度, 安全, 风险评估