Abstract:

In this paper, a cascading fault propagation model for chemical process was established based on the theory of edge load distribution in complex networks, to solve the increasingly prominent problem of cascading fault propagation in chemical process. Firstly, the chemical production system network was abstracted into a network model, and the nodes in the network were sorted in order of importance. Secondly, by randomly attacking the nodes in the network and deliberately attacking the nodes with the higher importance, the maximum risk propagation path under the two kinds attack modes was solved. Finally, assuming that the two maximum risk propagation paths have edge load fault, the highest risk of propagation paths under the two attack modes was evaluated according to the cascading failure probability, confirming the high-risk propagation paths. Results showed that this method can effectively determine the fault propagation path and the higher risk path. It provides certain theoretical basis and decision support for preventing the fault propagation in chemical production.

Key words: chemical process, complex network, failure propagation, cascading failures, risk propagation path, probability of failure

摘要：

依据复杂网络边负载分配相关理论，建立化工过程级联故障传播理论模型，用于解决化工过程中日益突出的级联故障传播问题。本文首先将化工生产系统抽象成网络模型，对网络中的节点进行重要性排序；其次对网络进行随机攻击并对重要性靠前的节点进行蓄意攻击，求解两种攻击方式下的最高风险传播路径；最后假设其发生边负载故障，根据风险传播路径故障概率对两种攻击方式下的最高风险传播路径进行评估，确定危险性较大的风险传播路径。经案例验证分析表明：该方法可有效确定生产过程中故障发生后的故障传播路径以及风险性较大的路径，为预防化工生产过程中故障传播提供一定的理论依据和决策支持。

关键词: 化工过程, 复杂网络, 故障传播, 级联故障, 风险传播路径, 故障概率