Abstract: Compared with traditional naphtha to ethylene, ethane cracking to ethylene has comparative advantages such as a short process flow, a small occupied area, less equipment investment and higher ethylene yield. However, the import ethane to ethylene projects is a complicated systematic project in China. There are still many problems such as stable availability of raw materials and economic benefit, etc. According to the incomplete statistics, total of 15 ethane cracking projects are building and planning in China, 13 of which depend on importing of US ethane resources. This analysis was done from the aspects of ethane resources, domestic demand, exports, export terminal capability of US, shipping capacity, and China's import of ethane for unloading and storage capacity, ethane demand as raw material and other factors influencing import ethane stability. Meanwhile, different oil price situation was set to analyze the economy and competitiveness of cracker plants using import ethane as raw material. The analysis indicated that the uncertainties were remained in multiple links such as exports, export terminal capability and shipping capacity of US, and import of ethane for unloading and storage capacity of China, etc. It was suggested that the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and other industry departments should strengthen the planning guidance, and the enterprises should be rational in their own situations and carried out project feasibility to avoid rushing.

Key words: ethane, ethylene, export, import, stability, economy

摘要： 乙烷裂解制乙烯与传统石脑油制乙烯相比，具有工艺流程短、占地面积小、装置投资少、乙烯收率高等相对优势，但中国进口乙烷裂解制乙烯项目是一个复杂的系统性工程，在原料稳定获取和经济效益等方面仍存在诸多问题。本文总结据不完全统计，中国正在建设和规划的乙烷裂解制乙烯项目共15个，其中全部或部分依赖进口美国乙烷资源的项目多达13个。文章从美国乙烷资源量、本土需求量、出口量、出口终端能力、海运能力以及中国进口乙烷接卸和储运能力、对乙烷原料的需求量等多个环节对获取进口乙烷的稳定性进行了分析。同时设定不同油价情境，对以进口乙烷为原料的裂解装置的经济性和竞争力进行分析。分析表明，美国乙烷出口量、出口设施能力、海运能力以及中国进口乙烷接卸和储运能力等多个环节仍存在不确定性，建议行业主管部门加强规划引导，各企业根据自身实际情况理性对待，深入开展项目可行性论证，避免一拥而上。

关键词: 乙烷, 乙烯, 出口, 进口, 稳定性, 经济性