基于复杂网络边负载分配理论的化工过程级联故障风险传播路径

doi:10.16085/j.issn.1000-6613.2018-2049

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

依据复杂网络边负载分配相关理论，建立化工过程级联故障传播理论模型，用于解决化工过程中日益突出的级联故障传播问题。本文首先将化工生产系统抽象成网络模型，对网络中的节点进行重要性排序；其次对网络进行随机攻击并对重要性靠前的节点进行蓄意攻击，求解两种攻击方式下的最高风险传播路径；最后假设其发生边负载故障，根据风险传播路径故障概率对两种攻击方式下的最高风险传播路径进行评估，确定危险性较大的风险传播路径。经案例验证分析表明：该方法可有效确定生产过程中故障发生后的故障传播路径以及风险性较大的路径，为预防化工生产过程中故障传播提供一定的理论依据和决策支持。

关键词: 化工过程, 复杂网络, 故障传播, 级联故障, 风险传播路径, 故障概率

Abstract:

In this paper, a cascading fault propagation model for chemical process was established based on the theory of edge load distribution in complex networks, to solve the increasingly prominent problem of cascading fault propagation in chemical process. Firstly, the chemical production system network was abstracted into a network model, and the nodes in the network were sorted in order of importance. Secondly, by randomly attacking the nodes in the network and deliberately attacking the nodes with the higher importance, the maximum risk propagation path under the two kinds attack modes was solved. Finally, assuming that the two maximum risk propagation paths have edge load fault, the highest risk of propagation paths under the two attack modes was evaluated according to the cascading failure probability, confirming the high-risk propagation paths. Results showed that this method can effectively determine the fault propagation path and the higher risk path. It provides certain theoretical basis and decision support for preventing the fault propagation in chemical production.

Key words: chemical process, complex network, failure propagation, cascading failures, risk propagation path, probability of failure

中图分类号:

袁健宝,王政,徐一凡,杨燕霞,贾小平,王芳. 基于复杂网络边负载分配理论的化工过程级联故障风险传播路径[J]. 化工进展, 2019, 38(08): 3525-3533.

Jianbao YUAN,Zheng WANG,Yifan XU,Yanxia YANG,Xiaoping JIA,Fang WANG. Risk propagation path of cascading fault in chemical process based on edge load distribution in complex network[J]. Chemical Industry and Engineering Progress, 2019, 38(08): 3525-3533.

图/表 15

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变量名	意义	变量名	意义
1	天然气入口流量	16	变换塔气体出口温度
2	软质水入口流量	17	气液分离器
3	蒸汽阀门	18	甲烷化炉
4	蒸汽流量	19	氨压缩机
5	一段转化炉温度	20	合成塔液位
6	一段转化炉流量	21	合成塔温度
7	二段转化炉流量	22	合成塔压力
8	一段转化炉压力	23	反应物流量
9	二段转化炉温度	24	液氨贮槽
10	二段转化炉压力	25	锅炉水预热器
11	工艺空气压缩机流量	26	锅炉水入口温度
12	一段转化炉进口压力	27	低变炉入口温度
13	压缩机出口压力	28	低变炉出口成分
14	二段转化炉出口压力	29	天然气阀门
15	变换塔冷却器温度	30	空气阀门

变量名	意义	变量名	意义
1	天然气入口流量	16	变换塔气体出口温度
2	软质水入口流量	17	气液分离器
3	蒸汽阀门	18	甲烷化炉
4	蒸汽流量	19	氨压缩机
5	一段转化炉温度	20	合成塔液位
6	一段转化炉流量	21	合成塔温度
7	二段转化炉流量	22	合成塔压力
8	一段转化炉压力	23	反应物流量
9	二段转化炉温度	24	液氨贮槽
10	二段转化炉压力	25	锅炉水预热器
11	工艺空气压缩机流量	26	锅炉水入口温度
12	一段转化炉进口压力	27	低变炉入口温度
13	压缩机出口压力	28	低变炉出口成分
14	二段转化炉出口压力	29	天然气阀门
15	变换塔冷却器温度	30	空气阀门

节点v_i	重要度C_i	节点v_i	重要度C_i
v ₁	0.2708	v ₁₆	0.3027
v ₂	0.1261	v ₁₇	0.2885
v ₃	0.1261	v ₁₈	0.1706
v ₄	0.3123	v ₁₉	0.4765
v ₅	0.2556	v ₂₀	0.4239
v ₆	0.4874	v ₂₁	0.5070
v ₇	0.5319	v ₂₂	0.2909
v ₈	0.1342	v ₂₃	0.5402
v ₉	0.3859	v ₂₄	0.2309
v ₁₀	0.2898	v ₂₅	0.0846
v ₁₁	0.2937	v ₂₆	0.0754
v ₁₂	0.1242	v ₂₇	0.1795
v ₁₃	0.2118	v ₂₈	0.5156
v ₁₄	0.2990	v ₂₉	0.1026
v ₁₅	0.1008	v ₃₀	0.1093

节点v_i	重要度C_i	节点v_i	重要度C_i
v ₁	0.2708	v ₁₆	0.3027
v ₂	0.1261	v ₁₇	0.2885
v ₃	0.1261	v ₁₈	0.1706
v ₄	0.3123	v ₁₉	0.4765
v ₅	0.2556	v ₂₀	0.4239
v ₆	0.4874	v ₂₁	0.5070
v ₇	0.5319	v ₂₂	0.2909
v ₈	0.1342	v ₂₃	0.5402
v ₉	0.3859	v ₂₄	0.2309
v ₁₀	0.2898	v ₂₅	0.0846
v ₁₁	0.2937	v ₂₆	0.0754
v ₁₂	0.1242	v ₂₇	0.1795
v ₁₃	0.2118	v ₂₈	0.5156
v ₁₄	0.2990	v ₂₉	0.1026
v ₁₅	0.1008	v ₃₀	0.1093

路径	初始负载L_i	负载容量C_i	路径故障概率P(L_i )
1	18	19.08	0.3396
2	60	63.60	0.3145
3	91	96.46	0.2861
4	72	76.32	0.1544